Adolescent Predictors of Life Course Trajectories of Body Fatness

Introduction: It is unknown which adolescent risk factors predict an unfavourable developmental pattern of body fat over a prolonged period of time. Methods: Latent class growth analyses was used to examine the presence of distinct 30-year developmental patterns of body fat using total fat (S4SF) and fat distribution (SFratio) measured by skinfold-thickness, separate for boys and girls. Logistic regression analyses were used to determine adolescent lifestyle predictors for the relatively unfavourable developmental patterns. Also, predictive effects of biological parameters (i.e. blood pressure, lipid profile) in adolescence were examined. Results: For SFratio, high caloric intake and (OR=0.35; p=0.01) and physical activity (OR= 0.20; p<0.01) are protective, while alcohol use is a predictor of a relatively unfavourable developmental pattern (OR=1.79; p=0.05). For S4SF, smoking appears protective (OR=0.44; p=0.10) for a relatively unfavourable developmental pattern. Adolescent blood pressure and lipid profile had no added value over lifestyle factors in predicting life courses of total fat or fat distribution. Conclusion: In adolescents, low physical activity and use of alcohol are predictors of a relatively unfavourable 30-year developmental pattern of central fat distribution. Total fatness is not clearly associated with adolescent life style factors, apart from a weak apparent protective effect of smoking.